Taming Competition in Low and High Orbit
17 Jan 2024 13:15h - 14:00h
Event report
An ever-growing number of countries are putting greater emphasis on their space capabilities, including national security ones.
In an era of heightened geopolitical tensions, how can countries ensure that space remains a domain for collaboration and not conflict?
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Session report
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Guru Gowrappan
The analysis explores different perspectives on satellite competition and its implications. One positive aspect highlighted is the competition in commercial constellations, which is projected to have several benefits. The space economy is expected to be worth over a trillion dollars by 2032, and the number of satellites is projected to increase tenfold from 2023 to about 60,000 by 2030. This growth indicates significant economic opportunities in the space industry.
Furthermore, satellite services are considered essential for addressing connectivity challenges in remote areas. Currently, 2.6 billion people lack access to connectivity, and satellite services, such as those provided by Viasat, play a crucial role in bridging the digital divide. Notably, Viasat powers aviation for 600 million passengers and enables 150,000 commercial shipping operations annually.
However, there are concerns regarding the negative impacts of satellite competition. One significant concern is the potential threat of space debris in low Earth orbit. The high number of satellites being deployed increases the risk of collisions, which could have catastrophic consequences. Therefore, proper management and control systems are necessary to mitigate these risks and ensure sustainability.
The analysis also emphasizes the importance of collaboration in data utilization. Partnerships, such as the one between Gio and Leo, provide real-time data for AI applications, aiding in addressing challenges like climate change. This highlights the need for global cooperation.
Similarly, national competition in the space sector is seen as a positive factor, fostering security collaboration and sovereignty. The example given is the Turks, who work within their rules when in their airspace or jurisdiction. This demonstrates how competition among countries can lead to fruitful partnerships at a security level.
However, control collaboration locally poses a threat, especially in areas like low Earth orbit and broadband connectivity, where establishment is still limited. The challenge lies in enforcing local collaboration, especially with new players in low Earth orbit, and this issue could hinder progress in those areas.
The analysis also highlights inefficiencies in satellite deployment and capacity management. Currently, there is an overpopulation of satellites in low Earth orbit, similar to overpopulating charging stations. The suggestion is to manage capacity according to demand rather than oversaturating supply, as 90% of Earth’s demand for capacity stems from only 15% of its surface. This imbalance in resource allocation and capacity management needs to be addressed for sustainability.
In conclusion, the analysis presents a nuanced view of satellite competition. While there are positive impacts, such as economic opportunities and connectivity benefits, there are also concerns about space debris, inefficient satellite deployment, and the need for collaboration and sustainable management. These findings highlight the importance of addressing these challenges to ensure the long-term viability and success of the space industry.
William Marshall
The space sector is undergoing a renaissance due to reduced rocket costs and increased satellite performance, resulting in more data and greater accessibility. Collaboration among companies like SpaceX, Viasat, European Space Agency, and NASA further promotes cooperation in the space industry.
Earth-imaging satellites provide valuable insights into global development, aiding in understanding poverty, refugee camps, water availability, food security, and sustainability. Governments have utilized this data for disaster response, such as in California for fires and floods. Urgent action is needed to address the issue of space debris, with an estimated 100 million orbital debris pieces currently in orbit. Prohibiting anti-satellite tests and establishing an international accord on space debris are necessary steps.
Space plays a critical role in managing global challenges, such as climate change and biodiversity loss. Satellite data is crucial in measuring and addressing these issues, while raising public awareness and accountability is essential for their resolution.
The democratization of space allows countries to access space capabilities without needing their own satellites or rockets. Collaboration and sharing of satellite data with the media contribute to transparency and fighting misinformation.
In summary, the space sector is experiencing a renaissance with reduced costs and improved performance. Earth-imaging satellites aid in global development and disaster response. Urgent action is needed to address space debris. Space is essential in addressing global challenges. The democratization of space and collaboration with the media promote transparency and combat misinformation.
Doreen Bogdan-Martin
The discussions brought forth several important points regarding satellite systems and artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of space technologies. One notable observation was that competing satellite systems aren’t new. In the past, Intelsat and Inmarsat were dominant government satellites. However, the emergence of private satellite companies posed an economic question for these existing government satellites. This highlights the ongoing trend of competition in the satellite industry.
Nevertheless, the discussions also revealed that access to satellite systems and their costs have significantly improved over time. This was attributed to the introduction of new systems like NGSO (Non-Geostationary Satellite Orbit) systems, which have resulted in reduced costs and improved connectivity. This noteworthy development has allowed approximately 2.6 billion previously unconnected people to now access these resources. The positive impact of this improvement in access and cost was emphasized, indicating the growing potential of satellite systems in various sectors.
Another key point that arose from the discussions was the importance of providing all countries with access to satellite resources. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) plays a significant role in ensuring fair and sustainable access to orbital resources and their associated spectrum. It was mentioned that at the beginning of the century, only 14 countries had satellites in orbit, whereas now there are 91 countries. This highlights the progress made in terms of global access to satellite resources and represents a positive trend towards inclusivity.
The potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in space technologies was also explored. It was noted that AI can enhance monitoring and tracking operations, such as logging. An example of Brazil utilizing AI in logging was mentioned, demonstrating the practical application of AI in this field. The discussions highlighted a supportive stance towards integrating AI into various operations for better outcomes. This suggests that AI has the potential to revolutionize space technologies by improving efficiency and accuracy.
The discussions also emphasized the importance of responsible strategies and the need for collaboration and cooperation in space-oriented endeavors. The management of space debris and space traffic was highlighted as a significant concern. Strategies have been implemented to ensure that orbital resources are not exhausted and space is not cluttered. It was noted that both governments and the private sector have a responsibility to maintain the cleanliness and sustainability of space. Additionally, studies are being conducted to investigate deorbiting and disposal strategies for space debris. These efforts reflect the intention to ensure long-term sustainability in the use of space-based resources.
Further observing the discussions, the transition of space matters from traditional bodies to ICT (Information and Communication Technology) ministries and the emergence of space bureaus within regulators were mentioned. This transition signifies the evolving nature of space technology management, with specialized bodies being established to address the unique demands and challenges of the sector.
In conclusion, the discussions shed light on various aspects of satellite systems and AI in the context of space technologies. The competition among satellite systems, the improvement in access and costs, and the importance of providing all countries with access to satellite resources were key focal points. The potential of AI and the need for responsible strategies, collaboration, and cooperation were also highlighted. These insights contribute to a broader understanding of the current state and future possibilities within the field of space technologies.
Josef Aschbacher
Space access and the space economy are undergoing significant changes, driven by increased international competition and a growing emphasis on partnerships and collaborations. This shift is a response to the evolving landscape of space exploration and the need for innovation and infrastructure development. Europe, in particular, is making strides in building up its space capabilities through strategic programming.
One notable program is Copernicus, which aims to provide accurate and timely information for environmental and security purposes. Europe also has strong initiatives such as Galileo, a global navigation satellite system, and various space science programs. These initiatives highlight Europe’s commitment to becoming a major player in the space sector.
However, it is argued that Europe needs to catch up and improve its space capabilities. The desire for the next generation of launchers, increased competition, and creativity are driving the need for Europe to enhance its space capabilities. Europe faced a launcher crisis in the previous year but plans are underway for Europe to regain access to space. This represents an opportunity for Europe to strengthen its position and contribute significantly to the space economy.
The European Space Agency (ESA) is undergoing a transition towards a customer model and is actively promoting competition. ESA has launched a competition for a cargo return vehicle for the Space Station, with the aim of becoming an anchor customer and purchasing services from industries. By fostering competition and adopting a customer-focused approach, ESA is positioning itself as a key player in the evolving space economy.
Cooperation is seen as essential to address the challenges posed by climate change. International fora such as CEOS and GEO are coordinating responses to climate change, and satellites from global powerhouses like China, Japan, the US, and Europe are being utilized for monitoring and data collection. The use of AI, Earth system models, and high-performance computing to predict climate risks is considered crucial for understanding and preparing for potential threats to humankind.
The issue of space debris is a growing concern, as the density of objects in lower Earth orbit increases. It is argued that satellite operators should take responsibility for the additional space debris they produce. Initiatives are being proposed to include sustainability criteria for satellite launches, encouraging operators to consider the long-term impact of their activities on space debris and the environment.
The integration of space into sustainability efforts is another key consideration. Applying the principles of terrestrial sustainability to the space orbit and developing technologies to remove out-of-service objects from orbit are important steps towards sustainable space exploration.
Strong international cooperation among spacefaring nations is seen as critical for sustainable space exploration and the management of Earth’s surface, orbits, and the moon. Collaboration is necessary to leverage resources, expertise, and technology to address the challenges and opportunities of space exploration.
Access to information is vital for transparency, trust, and democracy. The Copernicus program, which provides vast amounts of data for free, is an important step towards open access to information and can contribute to effective decision-making in various areas such as climate change, biodiversity, and resource management.
In conclusion, the space industry is undergoing significant changes, with increased competition, partnerships, and a focus on sustainable practices. Europe is making efforts to strengthen its space capabilities through strategic programming, and cooperation among spacefaring nations is crucial for sustainable space exploration. The use of technology, such as AI and Earth system models, to predict climate risks and the importance of managing space debris are key considerations. Furthermore, the integration of space into sustainability efforts and the promotion of transparency and democracy through open access to information are crucial for the future of the space sector.
Audience
During the discussion, the importance of recognizing ‘ecocide’ as a criminal act was emphasized. JJ Mater, co-founder and CEO of Stop Ecocide International, was mentioned as a key player in this movement. Their work involves collaborating with governments at various levels to acknowledge ecocide as a crime. This approach aims to hold accountable those who engage in activities that cause severe harm to the environment. The proposal to include outer space in the definition of the environment for ecocide was also discussed. The International definition of ecocide already includes outer space as part of its environmental scope. This perspective highlights the significance of preserving and protecting outer space as an integral part of our planet’s environment. The current legal situation treats space as a kind of commons, underscoring the absence of specific governance parameters for outer space. Establishing these parameters was emphasized to prevent severe, widespread, or long-term potential effects in outer space. Collaboration among satellite launchers, governments, media, and academia was highlighted as essential for effectively utilizing satellite data. It was emphasized that satellite launchers or governments alone cannot ensure the successful utilization of satellite data – media and academia play a crucial role as well. Free access to monitoring data of our planet was argued to be necessary to build trust and support democracy. Access to information was seen as crucial for transparency, better decision-making processes, and democratic systems. The Copernicus program, which provides free access to large amounts of monitoring data, was praised for stimulating the sector and encouraging the development of more commercial services. The discussion covered these important topics, showcasing compelling arguments and evidence and highlighting the role of various stakeholders in addressing these issues.
Alison Snyder
The session titled “Controlling Competition in Low and High Orbit” focused on the changing landscape of competition within the space industry, particularly in light of increased emphasis on space development by countries worldwide. The session highlighted the importance of collaboration between governments and the private sector in addressing the evolving challenges.
Panelists from the European Space Agency, the International Telecommunication Union, Viasat, and Planet Lab discussed various aspects of the competition in space. They acknowledged the economic and technological advantages associated with space access, as well as the growing commercial competition in low Earth orbit. The projected deployment of around 60,000 satellites by 2030 raised concerns about managing a congested orbital space effectively.
The session emphasized the significance of space data, particularly for Earth observation capabilities. Countries without their own space capabilities rely on this data for various purposes. The panelists discussed the economic harm that can be caused by monopolies controlling access to space data and emphasized the need for fair access.
The role of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in promoting sustainable and equitable access to space was highlighted. The ITU’s involvement in regulating orbital regimes and addressing challenges associated with space competition was acknowledged. The panelists stressed the importance of sustainable access to space as a global priority, requiring cooperation among nations.
Sustainability in the space industry was also discussed, including the mitigation of space debris and potential risks associated with anti-satellite systems. Views on achieving sustainable practices in the industry varied among the panelists.
The impact of national competition on service providers, such as Viasat, was explored. The cyber attack on Viasat’s satellite in 2022 exemplified the vulnerability of providers in the face of national competition.
The session concluded with a question and answer session, during which the importance of information and transparency in the space industry were emphasized. The panelists stressed the need for cooperation and collaboration among industry stakeholders to effectively address the challenges and risks posed by competition in low and high orbit.
In summary, the session highlighted the evolving nature of competition in the space industry and underscored the importance of collaboration between governments and the private sector. Fair access to space data, sustainable practices, and international cooperation were emphasized as crucial elements for the long-term success of the industry.
Speakers
AS
Alison Snyder
Speech speed
194 words per minute
Speech length
916 words
Speech time
283 secs
A
Audience
Speech speed
189 words per minute
Speech length
602 words
Speech time
191 secs
DB
Doreen Bogdan-Martin
Speech speed
174 words per minute
Speech length
1541 words
Speech time
531 secs
GG
Guru Gowrappan
Speech speed
202 words per minute
Speech length
1393 words
Speech time
413 secs
JA
Josef Aschbacher
Speech speed
196 words per minute
Speech length
1961 words
Speech time
599 secs
WM
William Marshall
Speech speed
194 words per minute
Speech length
2262 words
Speech time
699 secs
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