Is Geopolitical ‘Coopetition’ Possible?

Arguments

The audience member wants to know the speaker’s opinion on the coming elections in Mexico

Topics: Mexico, Elections

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The audience member questions if Japan’s contingency plans cover North Korea’s nuclear testing and a potential coalition between North Korea, China, and Russia

Supporting facts:

• The audience member mentions that he is a professor of economics from Seoul National University

• He acknowledges Chairman Ninami’s emphasis on South Korea-Japan cooperation

Topics: Contingency plans, South Korea-Japan relations, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, China, Russia

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Consideration on how to work together on global food security particularly in regions with varying resources

Supporting facts:

• North America and South America have water and land availability

• Africa has deficiency in water and land resources

• The Green Deal raises the possibility of Europe needing to import food

• China’s role in global food distribution and consumption

Topics: Food Security, Inter-regional Cooperation, Natural resources

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Report

During the discussion, several audience members raised concerns and posed questions. One audience member sought the speaker’s opinion on the upcoming elections in Mexico. The individual, with a neutral stance, expressed genuine curiosity about the speaker’s perspective on this significant event.

Another audience member raised an issue of imbalance in global discussions, noting that China was receiving excessive attention compared to other important global events, such as elections. This viewpoint highlights the need for a more balanced approach that covers a broader range of topics.

A different audience member, a professor of economics from Seoul National University, questioned whether Japan’s contingency plans accounted for North Korea’s nuclear testing and potential coalitions with China and Russia. Neutral in sentiment, this inquiry seeks clarification and underscores the importance of comprehensive contingency plans in addressing regional security concerns.

Similarly, another audience member expressed concerns about the scope of Japan’s contingency plans, which should not only address the China-Taiwan conflict but also North Korea’s nuclear activities and potential alliances. In alignment with SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions), this inquiry emphasizes the need for comprehensive plans to address various threats and security challenges.

Additionally, the discussion touched on global food security and the significance of inter-regional cooperation. It was highlighted that different regions have varying resources to address food security, with North and South America having sufficient water and land availability, while Africa faces deficiencies.

The Green Deal raised concerns about the possibility of Europe needing to import food, further emphasizing the global nature of the issue. The mention of China’s role in global food distribution and consumption underscores the importance of collective efforts to ensure worldwide food security.

This discussion aligns with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) in addressing global food security concerns. One audience member, described as a farmer from Brazil, expressed negative sentiment and worry about global food security, stressing the necessity of international cooperation.

Their concerns highlight the urgency of addressing food security challenges collectively on a global scale. In conclusion, the discussion unveiled various concerns and questions regarding upcoming elections in Mexico, the prominence of China in global discussions, Japan’s contingency plans, and global food security.

The neutral and negative sentiments expressed by the audience members underscore their desire for well-rounded discussions, comprehensive contingency plans, and international cooperation to address these significant global issues.

Arguments

Geopolitical turbulences might arise from the clean energy transition

Supporting facts:

• Increased competition for critical minerals and increased influx of EVs into Europe cited as potential sources of instability

Topics: clean energy transition, competition, geopolitics

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Mexico is well positioned to take advantage from global dynamics

Topics: Mexico, Global dynamics

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Report

The clean energy transition has the potential to lead to geopolitical turbulence due to increased competition for critical minerals used in renewable technologies. Additionally, the influx of electric vehicles (EVs) into Europe is seen as a factor that could further contribute to instability.

It is important to actively explore ways to reduce competition and instability resulting from this transition. By challenging the notion that the clean energy transition will only bring people together around shared challenges, we can better prepare for potential instabilities.

In a different context, Mexico is well positioned to take advantage of global dynamics. The government under AMLO has successfully capitalized on these opportunities; however, specific evidence is lacking to support this claim. Nevertheless, Mexico’s ability to leverage global dynamics can have positive implications for decent work and economic growth, aligning with the relevant sustainable development goal.

In conclusion, the clean energy transition poses challenges in terms of competition for critical minerals and the potential instability caused by the influx of EVs into Europe. It is crucial to explore ways to reduce such competition and instability. On a positive note, Mexico stands to benefit from global dynamics, with the government effectively utilizing these opportunities.

Although evidence is lacking, this suggests that Mexico could contribute to decent work and economic growth, aligning with the relevant sustainable development goal.

Arguments

Jane Harman refers to the term ‘coopetition’ as insightful and suggests it as a more encompassing framework than the binary concept of soft power and hard power.

Supporting facts:

• Coopetition includes both cooperation and competition. It is also two-sided, unlike the concepts of soft and hard power

Topics: Coopetition, Soft Power, Hard Power

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Jane Harman expresses pessimism about restoring trust and suggests managing distrust instead.

Topics: Trust, International Relations

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Harman asserts that both parties in the U.S. have moved away from pro-trade policies, which she finds heartbreaking.

Supporting facts:

• Trade politics have shifted dramatically since Harman’s time in Congress

• Both parties have turned against TPP, which was led by the Obama administration in its negotiation

Topics: Trade Politics, TPP, Democratic Party, Republican Party

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The politics of the U.S.-China relationship are difficult in Congress, with little scope for cooperation, particularly on shared interests like climate change and public health.

Supporting facts:

• China is seen as a political target in the U.S. and is associated with tough stances.

• Members of Congress have accused U.S. ambassador to China, Nick Burns, of appeasement.

Topics: U.S.-China relations, Congress, climate change, public health

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The U.S.’s perception of China has changed dramatically over time, from seeing it as a potential similar nation to a rival.

Supporting facts:

• In the 90s, votes for bestowing most favored nation status upon China were common.

• The U.S. was in favor of admitting China to the WTO.

• After 9/11, the U.S. was distracted and upon realizing, found that China’s power had risen substantially.

Topics: U.S.-China relations, World Trade Organization, international politics, 9/11

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Cooperation can exist in areas like medical and space sectors even in competitive environments

Supporting facts:

• There are major signs of cooperation especially in the medical area and space

Topics: Cooperation, Competition, Medicine, Space Exploration

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Governments and industry are moving in opposite directions

Supporting facts:

• Macron was emphasizing sovereignty

• Trump promotes America first

Topics: Green Revolution, Populism, Isolationism

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Mexico and the U.S. are and have to be closely latched together

Supporting facts:

• Mexico and the U.S are closely connected through trade

Topics: US-Mexico relations, International Relations

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AMLO is an unusual politician and his policies seem to be different than expected

Topics: AMLO, Mexican politics, Election

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U.S. military doctrine calls China the pacing challenge and Russia an active challenge.

Supporting facts:

• U.S. military doctrine names China as the primary big challenge, with Russia considered an active challenge.

Topics: U.S. military doctrine, China, Russia

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U.S. policy doesn’t have a broad enough lens.

Supporting facts:

• The U.S. is focusing on China and Russia, without considering the potential threats from other nations like North Korea and Iran.

Topics: U.S. policy

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The alliance among Iran, North Korea, China, Russia is very concerning.

Supporting facts:

• Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia have an unholy alliance which could pose a significant concern to the global security.

Topics: Iran, North Korea, China, Russia

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Coopetition can become a beneficial relationship between countries, such as the US and China

Supporting facts:

• The premier’s positive comments on the term coopetition

Topics: China, US, International Relations

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Countries in the Global South can potentially teach others about sustainability

Supporting facts:

• Costa Rica is an example country

Topics: Costa Rica, Sustainability

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Needs to show humility and acknowledge that solutions may come from the Global South

Topics: Global South, Coopetition

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Report

Jane Harman’s analysis covers a range of topics, including the concept of coopetition, US-China relations, trade politics, and the importance of global cooperation. Harman argues that the term “coopetition,” which combines elements of both cooperation and competition, provides a more encompassing framework than the traditional understanding of soft power and hard power.

She believes that coopetition recognises the complexity of international relations, where actors can simultaneously collaborate and compete with each other. Harman expresses concerns about the strained relations between the United States and China. She highlights how trade politics have dramatically shifted since her time in Congress, with both political parties turning against initiatives such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Harman finds this shift heartbreaking and asserts that it has allowed China to fill the power vacuum left by the US withdrawal from the TPP. She strongly believes that the US should have maintained its involvement in the TPP, viewing the decision to withdraw as a strategic mistake that has benefited China.

Regarding US-China relations, Harman emphasizes the difficulties faced in Congress when establishing cooperation on shared interests like climate change and public health. She notes that political rhetoric in Congress surrounding China has become harsh, with bashing China seen as a political gain.

Harman laments that bipartisanship is viewed negatively and that soundbites and clicks matter more than collaborative problem-solving. Harman supports the Biden administration’s multi-dimensional approach to China, which includes elements of confrontation, competition, and cooperation. She highlights that representatives from the administration have actively visited Beijing as part of their efforts to address US-China relations on multiple fronts.

Harman also discusses the need for cooperation in various sectors, such as medicine and space exploration, even in competitive environments. She notes that there are major signs of cooperation in these fields, illustrating that cooperation and competition can coexist. Furthermore, Harman emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the Global South, particularly in terms of sustainability and cooperation.

She suggests that countries in the Global South, like Costa Rica, can provide valuable lessons on sustainability. Harman argues that Africa and Latin America should not be treated as afterthoughts and calls for greater humility in acknowledging that solutions may come from the Global South.

In conclusion, Jane Harman’s analysis underscores the concept of coopetition as a more comprehensive framework for understanding international relations. She advocates for a pro-trade approach, expressing concerns about the strained relations between the US and China, and emphasizing the importance of cooperation in various sectors.

Harman also highlights the need to focus on the Global South and learn from its experiences in sustainability and cooperation. Her analysis offers insights into the challenges and opportunities in contemporary international relations.

Arguments

Maros Sefcovic argues that fostering cooperation amidst global competition is crucial.

Supporting facts:

• Mentioned the European Green Deal and the necessity for collaboration in creating a transatlantic cleantech market.

• Discussed the difficulties faced by the world amidst geopolitical rivalry, and the need to build more transatlantic bridges.

Topics: European Green Deal, Geopolitics, Coopetition, Transatlantic Cleantech Market

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Maros Sefcovic emphasizes the need for global alignment on green energy initiatives

Supporting facts:

• The current US administration has decided to go decisively on the green path, a decision that was welcomed by the European Union

• European companies feel at a disadvantage due to the Inflation Reduction Act

• Sefcovic suggests the use of bodies like the Trade and Technology Council to synergize efforts between close partners and allies

Topics: Green energy, US-European relationship, Inflation Reduction Act, Green tech

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Naivety in Europe’s approach towards Russia

Supporting facts:

• Dependence on Russia for fossil supplies

• Price paid in terms of economic and political impact

Topics: Russian global influence, Trade, cooperation, European-NATO diplomacy

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Need to support Ukraine

Topics: Conflict in Ukraine, European diplomatic stand

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Hope for future cooperation with Russia once political generation changes

Topics: Russian politics, Future diplomatic relations

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European focus on strategic autonomy and lessening dependencies

Supporting facts:

• Lessons learned from COVID-19 and dependence on Russian fuel supplies

Topics: Strategic autonomy, Diversification of supplies, Manufacturing and stockpiling

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Europe is a major food exporter focusing on sustainable agriculture

Supporting facts:

• Europe is a major food exporter

• Europe has the first in the world legal abiding nature restoration law focusing on sustainability

Topics: Food security, Sustainable agriculture

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Report

Maros Sefcovic, a prominent advocate for global cooperation, emphasises the critical need to foster collaboration amidst escalating geopolitical competition. He believes that to effectively address challenges, such as climate change and the weaponisation of data, it is necessary to build transatlantic bridges and establish a transatlantic cleantech market.

Sefcovic argues that by working together, major economies can set global standards for green technology and leverage their collective resources to drive innovation and achieve sustainable development. One of Sefcovic’s main concerns is the weaponisation of various resources and technologies.

He highlights the alarming potential for data, critical raw materials, technologies, and even medicines to be used as weapons in today’s complex geopolitical landscape. This raises significant concerns about the security and stability of global systems. Sefcovic’s proposed solution is the establishment of a transatlantic cleantech market, focusing on the production and exchange of green technologies and products.

He believes that by creating such a market, Europe and the United States can set an example for other regions and encourage global alignment on green energy initiatives. Moreover, this market would allow for economies of scale and facilitate the deployment of innovative solutions to address climate change.

In addition, Sefcovic emphasises the impact of current geopolitical challenges on existing systems. He expresses worries about the degradation caused by geopolitical rivalry, noting its heartbreaking consequences. Sefcovic urges support for countries like Ukraine, directly affected by such challenges, emphasising the importance of peace, justice, and strong institutions in international affairs.

Furthermore, Sefcovic advocates for strategic autonomy in Europe, highlighting the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and the dependence on Russian fossil fuel supplies. He believes that Europe needs to diversify its supply chains, focus on manufacturing and stockpiling essential resources, and reduce its dependencies on external sources.

Regarding agriculture, Sefcovic acknowledges the importance of sustainable practices. He acknowledges Europe as a major food exporter and supports the idea of maintaining this position while producing agriculture more sustainably. He suggests proposals for making agriculture more sustainable and stresses the inclusion of sustainability and agriculture in potential free trade agreements.

In conclusion, Maros Sefcovic’s key message revolves around the urgent need for global cooperation to address pressing challenges. From managing geopolitical competition to establishing a transatlantic cleantech market, he advocates for collaborative efforts, setting global standards, and aligning green energy initiatives.

Sefcovic also emphasises the impacts of geopolitical challenges on existing systems, the necessity of strategic autonomy in Europe, support for countries like Ukraine, and sustainable agriculture practices. His arguments underscore the importance of collaboration, innovation, and sustainable development in navigating the complexities of the modern world.

Arguments

Fragmented global markets hinder business and innovation

Supporting facts:

• Decreases return on capital due to region-specific operations

• Lack of trust in global supply chain requires capital for stocking up goods

• Investments have to be made in factories in different regions instead of optimizing global setup

• Absence of global competition reduces exchange of good practices

Topics: Globalization, Business, Innovation

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Fragmentation might be advantageous for certain companies

Supporting facts:

• Chinese competition in battery materials field is eliminated, creating opportunities for dominating players

• Companies operating in multiple regions can seize more market share as competition reduces

• Companies can receive public funding for investments in regions that wish to improve geopolitical resilience

Topics: Business Strategy, Competition, Market Share

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Fragmented world can be better for the environment

Supporting facts:

• Local supply chains eliminate need for shipping millions of tons of materials globally, reducing CO2 emissions

Topics: Environment, Globalization, CO2 Emissions

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Reducing competition and instability in the clean energy sector

Supporting facts:

• Collaboration and sharing of technologies are not new in industries like automotive and mining. Car manufacturers are venturing into battery manufacturing and there are joint ventures being formed globally across the various stages of the supply chain.

Topics: Clean Tech, Geopolitics, Supply Chains

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A global non-negotiable standard of zero CO2 for electric vehicles will necessitate cooperation between different supply chain steps

Supporting facts:

• Achieving zero CO2 in electric vehicles cannot be done individually but requires cooperation

Topics: CO2 emissions, electric vehicles, supply chain cooperation

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Public reward systems should be changed to reward ecosystems and collaborative efforts between companies, rather than individual companies

Supporting facts:

• Subsidies and grants around the world should incentivize collaborative efforts across the supply chain

Topics: public reward systems, collaboration, ecosystem development

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Predictability in regulation is important for investments

Supporting facts:

• Uncertainty in regulation could make investments obsolete

Topics: Regulations, Investments, Carbon pricing

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China is ahead in many fields on electric vehicles

Topics: China, Electric Vehicles

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China has a lot of things to learn in terms of decarbonizing the supply chain and sustainability

Topics: China, Decarbonization, Supply Chain, Sustainability

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Report

The analysis examines different perspectives on the impact of fragmented global markets. One argument is that fragmentation hinders business and innovation. This is primarily due to region-specific operations, which decrease the return on capital. Additionally, the lack of trust in the global supply chain requires companies to allocate more capital for stocking up goods.

This can limit their ability to optimize their global setup, as investments have to be made in factories in different regions instead. Moreover, the absence of global competition reduces the exchange of good practices, which can hinder innovation and progress.

On the other hand, some argue that fragmentation can be advantageous for certain companies. The elimination of Chinese competition in the battery materials field, for example, creates opportunities for dominant players. Furthermore, companies operating in multiple regions can seize more market share as competition reduces.

Additionally, companies can receive public funding for investments in regions that wish to improve geopolitical resilience. Apart from the impact on business and innovation, the analysis also discusses the environmental benefits of a fragmented world. Local supply chains eliminate the need for shipping millions of tons of materials globally, reducing CO2 emissions.

This demonstrates how a fragmented world can contribute to addressing climate change and achieving sustainable goals. Collaboration and sharing of technologies are highlighted as essential in reducing competition and instability in the clean energy sector. Examples, such as car manufacturers venturing into battery manufacturing and joint ventures forming globally across the various stages of the supply chain, demonstrate the positive impact of cooperation.

The analysis also reveals the need for better legislative measures to address CO2 emissions in the production process of electric vehicles, particularly in regions where improvements are required, such as the United States. There is recognition that achieving a zero CO2 standard for electric vehicles cannot be done individually but requires cooperation between different steps of the supply chain.

Furthermore, the analysis emphasizes the importance of public reward systems that incentivize collaborative efforts across the supply chain. By rewarding ecosystems and collaborative efforts between companies instead of individual firms, the aim is to promote cooperation and drive innovation in a fragmented world.

The analysis suggests that predictability in regulations is crucial for driving investments. Uncertainty in regulation can render investments obsolete, highlighting the need for strengthened methods to ensure predictability. In terms of electric vehicles and sustainability, the analysis acknowledges that China is ahead in many fields.

However, it also points out that China has room for improvement in terms of decarbonizing the supply chain and sustainability. The overall sentiment is that there should be a focus and alignment towards sustainability and decarbonization in the supply chain.

In conclusion, the analysis showcases different perspectives on the impact of fragmented global markets. While some argue that fragmentation hinders business and innovation, others argue that it can benefit certain companies. The analysis also highlights the environmental benefits of a fragmented world, as well as the importance of collaboration, legislative measures, public reward systems, and predictability in regulations.

Additionally, the analysis recognizes both China’s advancements and the need for improvement in terms of sustainability and decarbonization. Overall, there is a call for a more sustainable and cooperative approach in a fragmented world.

Arguments

Businesses need clear rules for predictability

Supporting facts:

• More than five people were arrested in China last year under unclear charges, according to Tak Ninami

• Suntory had to develop its intelligence capability to adapt

Topics: Private Sector, Business Development, Regulation

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Japan and South Korea should come together despite historical complications

Supporting facts:

• Tak Ninami believes in working together with South Korea to maintain order in East Asia

Topics: Japan, South Korea, Asia Stability

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Taiwan is at the center of Tak Niinami’s concerns at the moment

Supporting facts:

• The San Francisco meetings have lessened tension in East Asia

• There are a far fewer number of scrambles by Japanese Fire jets

Topics: Taiwan, East Asia, Japanese Fire jets

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Japan is in a tough position between US and China

Supporting facts:

• United States and China are vital for Japan’s investments and trades.

Topics: US-China relations, Japan’s diplomacy

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Infrastructure involvement of the US in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is desired.

Supporting facts:

• It was a mistake for the U.S. to walk away from the TPP.

• China is trying to apply to join the CPTPP

• Japan should play a key role to expand the CPTPP membership

Topics: CPTPP, US Foreign policy

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China joining the CPTPP may be beneficial, but it is uncertain whether they can meet its high level of rules

Supporting facts:

• China has shown their interest in the CPTPP

Topics: China, CPTPP

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Tak Niinami believes that the government and private sector should work together on rulemaking for carbon pricing.

Supporting facts:

• He mentions the importance of predictability in this area.

• He implies that the current situation is still uncertain and should be materialized sooner or later.

Topics: Government Collaboration, Private Sector, Carbon Pricing

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Tak Niinami believes Mexico is a good investment destination for their production operations

Supporting facts:

• Niinami has plans to make further investments in Mexico

Topics: Investment, Mexico, Production Operations

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Tak Niinami addresses South Korea’s concern on North Korea’s nuclear threat and possible coalition of North Korea with China and Russia

Supporting facts:

• South Korea’s concern on nuclear threat from North Korea

• Cooperation between South Korea and Japan

Topics: North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, nuclear threat

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Tak Niinami is not just concerned about the immediate threat posed by North Korea, but also potential future scenarios

Supporting facts:

• His main focus is Taiwan contingency

• Another important aspect is a possible change in the U.S. leadership

Topics: Taiwan contingency, leadership changes in the United States

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Wants to discuss sustainability in relation to China, focusing on natural disasters and environmental issues

Topics: China, Sustainability, Natural Disasters, Floods, Water Issues

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Report

In a series of discussions, Tak Niinami emphasised the importance of clear rules in business, particularly in China where several arrests were made last year under unclear charges. Niinami argued that businesses require clear rules for predictability and to ensure a level playing field.

He highlighted the need for the private sector to engage in dialogue, even with their competitors, as a means of fostering cooperation and growth. Despite historical complications, Niinami urged Japan and South Korea to come together to maintain stability and order in East Asia.

Niinami expressed his concerns about Taiwan, stating that it is currently at the centre of his worries. He acknowledged the positive impact of recent meetings in San Francisco, which have helped to lessen tensions in East Asia and reduce the number of scrambles by Japanese fighter jets.

However, he remains concerned about the ongoing situation and its potential implications. Regarding government collaboration and preparation, Niinami called for both the government and the private sector to be prepared for any challenges and to work together on rulemaking, particularly in areas such as carbon pricing.

He believed that a collaborative and predictable approach is essential to address climate change and achieve sustainable development goals. Niinami also expressed his support for Mexico as a promising investment destination for their production operations, highlighting his plans for further investments in the country.

In terms of international relations, Niinami acknowledged the challenging position Japan finds itself in between the United States and China. He believed that Japan should play a key role in expanding the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and expressed his disappointment in the US decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Niinami also suggested that China’s interest in joining the CPTPP could be beneficial, but he remains sceptical about China’s ability to adhere to the high-level rules of the agreement. Niinami addressed the issue of North Korea’s nuclear threat and its possible coalition with China and Russia.

He emphasised the importance of mutual cooperation between South Korea and Japan as a vital factor in contingency planning. Niinami also expressed his concerns about Taiwan and potential leadership changes in the United States, highlighting the need to consider future scenarios.

In terms of sustainability, Niinami called for discussions on China’s natural disasters and environmental issues. He believed that addressing these issues and focusing on common interests could promote cooperation and contribute to achieving sustainable development goals. Overall, Tak Niinami stressed the significance of partnerships, predictability, and collaboration between the government and the private sector in achieving peace, justice, and strong institutions globally.

His arguments were supported by evidence such as the arrests in China, the need for private sector engagement, the importance of contingency planning, and the potential benefits of addressing environmental issues and investing in Mexico.