The Internet in 20 Years Time: Avoiding Fragmentation | IGF 2023 WS #109

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The future of the internet is heavily influenced by innovation in use cases and applications. Younger engineers are seen as key drivers of this innovation, as they come up with new ideas that shape the development of internet protocols and technology.

However, there are concerns about the current state of the internet. It has shifted from being a force for good to being driven by aspects such as surveillance, capitalism, malware, and misinformation. This observation highlights the need for measures to address these negative aspects and ensure that the internet continues to serve as a positive force in society.

Diversity and inclusion also emerge as crucial factors in the development of internet standards. The lack of female participation and end-user representation in standards bodies is seen as a problem that needs to be addressed. Having more diversity and inclusivity in these bodies allows for a wider range of perspectives, leading to more comprehensive and effective standards.

Predicting future advancements in technology should focus on understanding user demands rather than solely relying on technological capabilities and government regulations. The speaker suggests that the best way to anticipate future developments is by understanding what individual users want technology to do.

This user-centric approach ensures that technological advancements align with the needs and desires of the people.

While there is technological optimism, challenges arise from governmental regulation fragmentation and enforcement contradictions. The existence of contradictory laws and regulations related to privacy and online content does not seem to inhibit governments from enforcing them, raising concerns about the effectiveness and coherence of regulation in the internet landscape.

Incentives, particularly money, play a significant role in driving internet development, especially in the context of web 3 crypto. However, it is acknowledged that money may not be the sole incentive driving technology development. Other factors such as societal impact, innovation, and user satisfaction should also be considered.

The influx of cryptocurrencies is expected to make the future of the internet more complex and fragmented. This observation raises concerns about the possibility of increased fragmentation and the need for regulation to address these complexities effectively. Government regulation fragmentation is seen as a major risk that could hinder the development of a cohesive and secure internet.

There is also a focus on the need for more inclusive regulation, particularly in the context of AI. The lack of consensus and the competition surrounding AI regulation are seen as challenges. It is suggested that businesses, civil societies, and the engineering sector should document the consequences of fragmented regulation to increase awareness and promote more balanced and inclusive approaches.

Inclusivity and engagement of users from the global south and countries with geopolitical differences are highlighted as essential for the future of the internet. By incorporating diverse perspectives, the development and governance of the internet can be more representative and inclusive.

There are concerns about the negative aspects of the internet, such as internet shutdowns and the exploitation of ICT by bad actors. These issues call for regulation and measures to ensure the proper and ethical use of technology.

The importance of aligning government regulations with human rights norms and standards is emphasized. Both governments and companies have responsibilities to uphold human rights through their actions and policies.

Inclusive governance and the involvement of diverse stakeholders, particularly users, are seen as crucial.

By including different voices and perspectives, decisions about the internet’s future can be more comprehensive and representative.

In conclusion, the future of the internet is shaped by innovation in use cases and applications driven by younger engineers.

However, challenges exist in terms of the internet’s trajectory towards negative aspects such as surveillance and misinformation. Ensuring diversity and inclusion in internet standards bodies is key, and predicting future technology advancements should focus on understanding user demands. Regulation, especially with regards to cryptocurrency and AI, needs to be comprehensive and inclusive.

Inclusivity, human rights, and the prevention of negative impacts on society should be at the forefront of decision-making.

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In the discussions surrounding the future of the Internet, Emily Taylor raises the need to explore potential risks and scenarios. Taylor outlines three possible scenarios for the Internet’s future: muddling along as it currently is, fragmentation due to various factors, or a more positive collective future created by society.

Taylor also reflects on the optimism once associated with the Internet, expressing a desire to rediscover that sense of potential for liberation and empowerment.

This highlights the importance of not losing sight of the positive aspects of the Internet’s evolution.

The discussions emphasize viewing technology as an integral part of society rather than something separate. Izumi’s views on the chaotic nature of the Internet and the need for focus on better societies and individuals support this argument.

The concept of a better future should encompass technological advancements as well as advancements in society and individuals.

In conclusion, the future of the Internet requires consideration of potential risks, a renewed sense of optimism, and recognition of the integration between technology and society.

This comprehensive analysis offers insights into the discussions surrounding the future of the Internet and the need to align technological advancements with societal progress for a more inclusive and beneficial future.

Note: There were no UK spelling and grammar errors to correct in this text.

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Henri Verdier, a pioneering internet entrepreneur, took a leap of faith in 1995 by starting his first internet company during a time when there were only 15,000 web surfers in France. Initially, Verdier harboured doubts about the potential of crowd-sourced knowledge bases like Wikipedia.

However, he has since come to embrace the transformative power of the internet.

One of Verdier’s concerns is the fragmentation and privatization of the internet. It is disconcerting to see certain big states and tech companies disregarding the importance of a free, open, and decentralized internet.

This issue raises questions about the future of an internet that is accessible and available to all.

Cyberspace has become intertwined with various aspects of life, including education, health, business, and even matters of war and peace. This highlights the enormity of the impact of the digital revolution in recent times.

Furthermore, there has been a rise in digital diplomats as part of this revolution.

Understanding the distinction between technical fragmentation and legal fragmentation of the internet is crucial. Technical fragmentation leads to a higher temptation to disconnect from each other, while the legal aspect of internet governance empowers individuals to shape their own future.

In advocating for a free, open, and decentralized internet, Verdier acknowledges the importance of respecting each country’s right to establish its own legal framework.

He believes in the right of the people to make decisions about their own future and is a strong proponent of an open and neutral internet. He opposes the idea of a unified market for tech giants such as Mr.

Zuckerberg.

Another vital aspect is the need for network standards and legal standards to be interoperable. This ensures seamless connectivity and compatibility between different systems.

Verdier highlights the distinction between private online spaces, such as social networks, and the internet itself.

He sees entering a social network as akin to leaving the internet, emphasising that social networks are “private places” built on top of the internet’s infrastructure. Additionally, Verdier expresses a preference for European rules over private rules from platforms like Elon Musk’s.

The golden age of the internet has ushered in an unprecedented openness of access to information, knowledge, and culture.

This has been a monumental shift, allowing people from various backgrounds to engage with a vast array of resources. Furthermore, this period has uniquely empowered communities and individuals, enabling them to have a greater say in shaping their own futures.

The permissionless innovation that characterizes this era has also spurred remarkable progress.

Verdier cautions that threats to individuals’ autonomy, empowerment, and creativity can stem from many sources, not solely rogue states. He has expressed concerns about the role of the private sector in potentially impeding these freedoms.

In conclusion, Henri Verdier, a respected internet entrepreneur, has witnessed and experienced the incredible evolution of the internet.

While initially doubtful, he now recognises its transformative potential. However, he remains watchful of the dangers of fragmentation, privatization, and the potential threats to people’s autonomy and creativity. By advocating for a free, open, and decentralized internet, he strives to strike a balance between global connectivity and respecting the sovereignty of individual nations.

Overall, his insights and observations shed light on the complex challenges and opportunities presented by the internet in the modern world.

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Predicting the future is a challenging task, especially when it comes to disasters and conflicts. These events are often unpredictable in nature, as exemplified by the earthquake and tsunami that occurred 12 years ago, which was not foreseen. Recent conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine were also unexpected.

Despite advancements in technology, such as the Internet, smartphones, and AI, natural calamities and conflicts continue to impact the world unexpectedly. This suggests that while optimism about the future is important due to technological advancements, reality often brings unexpected events.

The future is multi-faceted, consisting of both positive and negative aspects.

It is composed of different elements, including both dark and bright aspects. While there may be positive advancements, there are also dark and challenging aspects to consider. It is important to have a holistic understanding of the future, considering its multi-dimensional nature.

One perspective on the future of the Internet is presented by Izumi Aizu.

He believes that the future scenarios of the Internet will be characterised by mixed networks co-existing with the traditional Internet, fragmented Internet with national bloc politics, and a globally unified strength Internet. This suggests that the future of the Internet may be chaotic and fragmented.

However, Aizu also believes in the Internet as a tool for global communication and knowledge sharing.

Despite the potential fragmentation due to political and economic reasons, he emphasizes that the underlying ethos of the Internet as a communication tool is likely to persist. Aizu challenges the view that achieving a ‘better internet’ alone should be the ultimate goal.

Instead, he emphasizes the importance of focusing on creating better societies and better people.

Aizu agrees with Sheetal Kumar’s statements about the need to harmonize legal frameworks to international human rights standards and make governance bodies more inclusive, particularly in the context of internet governance.

He suggests that the future of technology, including the Internet, should be informed by current politics and environmental changes. This includes considering potential regulations on servers, data centers, and artificial intelligence (AI) due to environmental factors.

Furthermore, Aizu emphasizes that the focus should not solely be on the future of the Internet but on the future of humanity as a whole.

He argues that it is essential to address global goals like good health and well-being, quality education, and sustainable cities and communities alongside technological advancements.

The current discourse on artificial intelligence (AI) is criticized for its lack of inclusivity.

Aizu points out that important countries like China and India were not adequately represented in the discussion. This highlights the need for broader participation and diverse perspectives in shaping the future of AI.

The present state of the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) is perceived as peaceful but unremarkable.

Although the IGF has evolved from being tense and fearful in the past, it is now considered to be less impactful and engaging.

In conclusion, predicting the future is a challenging task, particularly regarding disasters and conflicts. Advancements in technology do not eliminate the unpredictability of these events.

The future is multi-faceted, composed of both positive and negative aspects. The future of the Internet may be chaotic, but it also holds potential as a tool for global communication and knowledge sharing. The focus should be on creating better societies and better people, rather than solely improving the Internet.

Harmonizing legal frameworks and governance bodies to international human rights standards is crucial for responsible internet governance. Considering current politics and environmental changes is important when shaping future technology. Inclusivity is key when discussing topics like AI, and broader participation is needed.

The present state of the IGF is perceived as peaceful but unremarkable, highlighting the need for more impact and engagement. It is essential for IP fundamentalists to expand their perspectives and engage with other global issues. By doing so, they can learn from and contribute to discussions on topics like climate change.

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The analysis explores different perspectives on the impact and governance of the internet and technology. It begins by highlighting the initial optimism surrounding these tools, with the belief that they would serve as liberating and empowering forces. Lorrayne Porciuncula grew up closely involved in the evolution of the internet through her father’s local ISP in Brazil.

She conducted a survey that revealed widespread optimism about the benefits that technology would bring to society. However, it is noted that the reality of technology’s impact is more nuanced than early optimistic predictions.

Porciuncula acknowledges that while the internet and technology have brought some positive changes, they have not fully lived up to the idealistic visions many had held.

The argument presented is that the future concern lies more in the legal and regulatory aspect of technology rather than the technical layer. It is stressed that there is a need to consider how to build alignment across different national legal and regulatory frameworks to avoid fragmentation.

Furthermore, it is suggested that coordination and collaboration are essential in creating a more agile perspective towards internet infrastructure.

This includes having a multi-stakeholder approach and addressing the challenges of cross-border coordination. Porciuncula emphasizes the importance of finding institutions and processes that are capable of considering various perspectives and adapting to the ever-evolving nature of technology.

The analysis also highlights the complexity of the internet and the need for international cooperation in its governance.

It is recognized that the internet is difficult for one government to regulate and comprehensive governance requires collaboration on an international scale. The argument is made that the focus should be on governing the complex adaptive system of the internet through international cooperation.

Narratives are identified as playing a crucial role in discussions about the internet and digital society.

Porciuncula emphasizes the importance of addressing issues such as walled gardens with competition tools and identifying the requirements society has for the internet. The analysis also notes that there is a lack of clarity about what society wants from the internet.

The need for remedies that allow users to switch between internet platforms is highlighted, drawing parallels with the example of telecoms where users have the right to switch.

This is seen as a means to promote competition and reduce inequalities.

Addressing the complexity of internet governance requires a clear objective, an incremental and iterative approach, and multi-stakeholder inclusion. The analysis stresses the importance of considering the perspectives of underrepresented communities and incorporating them into the decision-making process.

It is argued that multi-stakeholderism is not about relinquishing government decision-making power but rather about creating a more inclusive and democratic approach.

Lastly, the analysis suggests that sandboxes can serve as a valuable tool for testing new policies and understanding potential issues.

By allowing for real-world testing of regulations, sandboxes can provide insights into the effectiveness of policies and help address any unintended consequences.

In conclusion, the analysis highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of the impact and governance of the internet and technology.

While there was initial optimism about their liberating and empowering potential, it is recognized that their impact is more complex. The focus should shift towards the legal and regulatory aspects and finding alignment across national frameworks to avoid fragmentation. Additionally, a more agile perspective, international cooperation, and multi-stakeholder inclusion are crucial in addressing the challenges of internet governance.

Clear objectives, an iterative approach, and multi-stakeholder involvement are necessary to tackle the complexity of the system.

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Predicting the future of the internet is a challenging task due to the complexities and rapid advancements in technology. However, there are differing viewpoints on what the future may hold.

One perspective is that openness is a key feature that should define the future of the internet.

This notion is supported by the belief that the scientific method of sharing knowledge, criticizing each other, and making knowledge readily available has been instrumental in driving innovation and progress. Openness allows for collaboration and the exchange of ideas, thereby fostering continuous development and improvement.

Furthermore, empowering communities through bottom-up methods, such as building Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) and providing cookbooks for community networks, helps ensure that everyone has equal access to the benefits of the internet.

However, there is another argument that proposes a future scenario where the internet becomes closed and proprietary.

This model envisions a world where services are primarily developed to generate profits, prioritising monetary gain over network connectivity. Under this system, the concept of openness may be overshadowed by profit-driven motives, potentially hampering innovation and limiting access for certain groups of people.

Additionally, the lack of infrastructure is identified as a significant challenge that leads to fragmentation.

Without adequate infrastructure, internet services may be limited or nonexistent in certain regions, impeding connectivity and hindering progress.

One area of concern is the influence of industry politics on standardisation bodies. It is recognised that choices made by these bodies can be influenced by industry interests and agendas, potentially impacting the open and transparent nature of internet standards.

The notion of consolidation is another topic of discussion.

Even with open technologies, companies may seek to extract profits and monopolise the market, leading to consolidation and reducing diversity. This trend raises concerns about fair competition and innovation within the internet ecosystem.

On the other hand, innovation does not always require strict standards.

For example, the development of blockchain technology by Satoshi Nakamoto, where an innovative approach was taken without relying on a predefined standard, showcases the possibility of permissionless, open, and individual-driven innovation.

Open architecture, open-source, open standards, and transparency are highlighted as essential components for a positive future of the internet.

Open architecture allows people to build upon existing technologies, while open-source encourages collaboration and reuse of building blocks. Open standards and transparency promote inclusivity and foster trust among users.

Internet regulation and governance are acknowledged as crucial aspects for the future of the internet.

A principle-based approach that considers factors such as individualism, autonomy, and societal values is suggested as a means of organising the internet. However, achieving global consensus on these matters is expected to be challenging given the diverse perspectives and interests of various stakeholders.

In conclusion, predicting the future of the internet is a complex task, given the rapid pace of technological advancements.

While there are differing opinions on what the future may hold, the importance of openness, infrastructure development, community empowerment, and fair governance are recurrent themes in shaping a positive future for the internet.

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During the discussion, the speakers covered various important topics, including the challenge of internet fragmentation and its negative impact. They acknowledged the already existing fragmentation in the internet and expressed the mission to minimize it as much as possible, promoting a more unified and accessible internet for everyone.

Another significant aspect discussed was the need for gradual objectives and commitments in policy making.

The speakers emphasized the importance of starting with simple agreements and progressively improving upon them. This approach encourages collaboration and partnerships among different stakeholders, in line with the goal of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 17 of “Partnerships for the Goals.”

To improve messaging and policymaking, the speakers emphasized the importance of clear and concise messages regarding internet fragmentation and its implications.

Simplifying these messages would enhance policymakers’ understanding and enable them to make informed decisions. This approach aligns with SDG 16, which aims for “Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions” and underscores the need for effective communication in policy-making processes.

Additionally, the discussion shed light on the impact of fear on shaping future policies, particularly in relation to artificial intelligence (AI).

The speakers observed that discussions at a global conference primarily focused on fears and concerns about AI, with a negative bias. They argued against formulating policies solely based on fear, advocating for a balanced and rational approach rooted in evidence-based decision-making.

The speakers also emphasized the importance of involving youth in policy discussions.

They believed that regardless of their level of expertise, young individuals should have a voice in shaping the future. This recognition aligns with SDG 16 and highlights the value of diverse perspectives in the policy-making process.

In summary, the speakers stressed the need for collaboration, clear messaging, and gradual improvement in policy-making processes, while cautioning against the negative influence of fear.

By involving various stakeholders, particularly youth, in discussions, they aimed for a comprehensive and inclusive approach to envision and shape the future of the internet.

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The future of the internet is predicted to become increasingly intertwined with our daily lives and more challenging to separate from our activities, according to multiple speakers. They assert that advancements in technology have resulted in devices becoming smaller and faster, leading to the omnipresence of cameras through mobile phones.

This development has made capturing and sharing images an effortless part of our routine.

Furthermore, the speakers emphasize the accuracy of past predictions regarding technological advancements. This observation highlights the potential for future visions and creations to shape the evolution of the internet.

It implies that our anticipation and actions today can play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of technological progress.

Sheetal Kumar, one of the speakers, underlines the significance of actively shaping the future of technology. She stresses that technology should feel liberating for all individuals, especially those who lack positions of power.

Kumar emphasizes the need to address and overcome current social inequalities in shaping the future of the internet. This call for inclusivity is accompanied by an appeal for engagement and cooperation among technology builders and standard-setters.

Moreover, the speakers stress the importance of harmonizing legal frameworks with human rights standards and making decision-making bodies more inclusive.

This notion is grounded in the existence of international human rights law and standards. The speakers argue that aligning legal systems with human rights principles leads to more equitable and just outcomes. They advocate for increased transparency and a reinstated sense of user control in internet data, as recent trends have demonstrated a shift in control from users to corporate actors and governments.

Protecting the openness of the internet is seen as paramount.

The speakers highlight the value of open access, enabling people to go online, build new applications, and develop technologies. They argue that maintaining openness fosters innovation, collaboration, and an inclusive digital environment.

In conclusion, the future of the internet is expected to be tightly integrated into our lives, making it difficult to disassociate from our activities.

Promoting a future where technology feels liberating and inclusive is a shared goal among the speakers. They advocate for engagement, cooperation, and the alignment of legal frameworks with human rights standards. Reinstating user control and transparency while protecting the openness of the internet is also considered essential.

Ultimately, the future world should be built upon the principles of liberation and the safeguarding of human rights.