Telecommunications infrastructure

2024 predictions for telecomms infrastructure

The previously integrated network of submarine cables will continue separating between China and the USA. We have already seen, for instance, that the USA banned landing rights to a few submarine cables with links to China. And China started investing in separate cable systems, such as a new cable connecting China with France via Singapore, Pakistan, and Egypt. 

Faced with these divisions, countries will focus on digital sustainability by developing alternative digital routes. They will also work more on preserving content locally via internet exchange points (IXPs). 

Outer space is another field of accelerated competition between the USA and China, as well as other public and private actors. In the area of internet connectivity alone,  low-orbit satellite (mega)constellations by the likes of SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Project Kuiper are to face competition from China Satellite Network Group’s Gouwang project. 

National space agencies and private actors alike are planning or working on deploying (new) communications and navigation networks (e.g. around the Moon), the development of new space stations, and the exploration and exploitation of space resources (e.g. metals, minerals), giving rise to new governance issues. 

Against this backdrop, ensuring a fair and responsible allocation and use of spectrum resources and orbital positions, encouraging responsible behaviour in outer space from public and private actors, and ensuring the sustainability of space activities will be some of the questions that UN bodies and processes – from the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), to the Summit of the Future – will be addressing in 2024.

The 2023 WTO World Trade Report noted that Sino-American tensions are contributing to pre-existing fragmentation trends in the world economy. This is leading to a search for economic independence (instead of interdependence) in sensitive areas, and to a reorientation of trade flows along geopolitical divides. This finding is particularly concerning due to the central position occupied by the United States and China in the global economy, creating pressure for their trade partners to position themselves along the fault lines.

The relations that the EU nurtures with both sides, particularly when implementing its Economic Security Strategy will be key to counter – or at least to mitigate – fragmentation trends. Simultaneous politico-ideological and value chain fragmentation would mean that divides would become harder to bridge in the future, with negative consequences for markets and technological interoperability.  

Push for sovereignty in tech realm

In 2024, countries and regional blocs such as the EU will also push for more self-reliance in terms of digital developments. Initiatives focused on achieving digital, data, AI, or cyber sovereignty are often motivated by a desire to reduce the risks of negative security and economic spillovers from integrated digital networks.

The sovereignty drive takes different forms. Sometimes, it is about control of infrastructure. In order cases, it is about preserving data on national territory. Increasingly, it is about facilitating national AI developments. 

Approaches to digital sovereignty will vary, depending on a country’s political and legal systems. Legal approaches include national regulation and court judgments; technical ones vary between data filtering and frowned-upon internet shutdowns. 

But a focus on digital sovereignty reduces the appetite for global digital governance solutions. In one illustration of this, the recent withdrawal of the USA from the WTO e-commerce negotiations was justified by the need to gain more room for regulating tech companies nationally. 

2023 recap for telecoms infrastructure

Geopolitics of submarine cables

Submarine cables became the focus of global interest following the Nord Stream blast. Cutting major submarine cables could create havoc in our digitally interdependent civilisation.  In the same context, Prof. Jeffrey Sachs sent a warning message at the UN Security Council hearing on the risks for digital cables. NATO has also set up a Critical Undersea Infrastructure Protection Cell with one of the main aims to protect internet submarine cables.

Another area of increasing decoupling between China and the US is submarine cables. The US has declined landing rights for a few new submarine cables that have Chinese landing points or involve Chinese companies in cable laying or management. Following Chinese retaliation, it is very likely that two parallel submarine cable systems led by China and the United States will emerge.

Geopolitics of outer space

In January, we said that outer space activities would likely get more attention in governance and diplomacy talks. And, indeed, quite a lot has been going on over the past 12 months. At the UN level, the Open-ended Working Group on reducing space threats (OEWG-Space) through norms, rules, and principles of responsible behaviour held its third session and saw member states discuss a wide range of issues, from preventing harmful interferences in space, to addressing threats against space objects (in particular satellites), and preventing an arms race in outer space.

At the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, two new working groups were created to explore: (a) the status and application of the five UN treaties on outer space, and (b) the legal aspects of space resource activities. Meanwhile, space agencies and private actors are coming up with new initiatives and plans. Just a few examples: competition is picking up in low-earth orbit communication networks, as China’s Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and Amazon’s project Kuiper are preparing to launch satellite constellations to compete with the services provided by the likes of Starlink and OneWeb. With the moon back in the focus of space exploration activities, plans are unfolding—within the European Space Agency (ESA) and US company Lockheed Martin, for instance—to deploy new communication networks around our earth’s natural satellite.